One month to go before IM Cozumel... Not that I'm nervous or anything. Not that I've put these crazy expectations on myself, or that there's anything that could go wrong. I've started having nightmares where my flight is delayed and I miss the start, or my bike goes missing, or I get arrested the day before and I'm still in a holding cell the morning of the race...

Last year I was worried about
land sharks ruining my race, this year it's I'm worried about the vicious blood-sucking
chupacabras who leaves only bone-dry livestock in its wake. Sure, it's unlikely that the spiny wolf-sized demon will attack me, mostly because it is fictional. But still... the
chupacabras is a nocturnal creature and if I'm in the lightstick crowd, I'm sure it will be lurking behind some resort landscaping waiting to suck all the blood out of me. Your aerobic capacity really goes down if you've been sucked dry. Even though it's unlikely, my
coach has pointed out that it's always a good idea to have a hotel room on at least the second floor.
Beyond the
chupacabras, I'm also being haunted by a very real menace: airline baggage trolls, who I have become convinced will lose my bike in any one of my long layovers. Before you suggest I ship, I've already looked into it, and both UPS and FedEx are over $300 each way to ship. The airline's only $100 each way. Because I'm poor, I've had to go for a less-than-ideal travel itinerary: namely a 9-hour layover in NYC and an overnight layover in Cancun. In my mind, the longer your bags are sitting in an airport, the greater their chance of finding their way onto the wrong plane.

But one thing could go wrong to fuck up the whole thing more than any of that other stuff:
me.
I'm not saying that I don't think I can finish or anything, I'm saying that I have the ability to fuck up my race more than any of the baggage trolls ever could. If I have learned one thing since starting this Ironman training under someone else's guidance, it's that
I don't know shit about my body. This is not something that my coach has told me, but a conclusion that I have reached independently.
First, there's my swimming. I always thought that swimming was kind of a formality: just a chance to offer contestants up as chum and to make sure that you were good and uncomfortable when you got on your bike sopping wet. I never figured that a short little 1-hour splash would be enough to get me tired enough to have an effect on my overall race. Sure, there's a short adjustment period when you get back to dry land and need to shunt blood back to your legs, but that's over in about 10 minutes. To my surprise, it turns out that swimming is also my first chance to fuck up this race. Recently I have been having swim sessions that are challenging enough to make me think I'm going to throw up in the gutter at the pool (10x100's at 1:25 pace with 10s rest when my best 100 time is around 1:21). I have noticed that after these sessions I feel... tired. And hungry. And... drained. I know that I can swim 2.4 miles at around 1:35 pace fairly comfortably, but what if I go too fast? When my mind doesn't get in my own way, there's always the fear of sharks.

Then there's the bike. If there is one thing that I thought I knew about that has been challenged most, it's my perception of myself on the bike. I used to think that I never got tired on the bike and that I got stronger as time went on. For some reason, suddenly I started getting tired around the time I got a coach. (I actually think it was the running that ruined my cycling legs.) On top of that, around fall every year I come to the conclusion based on no evidence whatsoever that I will
never be able to ride a bike again. Normally it doesn't matter because all I have waiting for me and my bike are long trainer hours. But now... not so much.
For some reason, when it's cold I can't "feel" my legs. No, not like they're numb from the cold. It's just something about not having skin exposed to air fucks up something with my propioceptive awareness (sense of my body in space) and it's like someone unplugged my legs. My bike feels squishy. I can't and don't want to get my heartrate up. My body wants to ride 16 mph, and I can't seem to overcome it. I do not want to ride 16 mph. Right now I can't even hit the heartrate that was my
average heartrate at
Patriot in June.
But then again, since I'm finding it so hard to judge my bike fitness right now (it's been months since I rode with anyone else), I have no idea how fast I can ride. And you know what happens when
that happens? I see a low average speed and decide that I should be riding faster. And I hammer. (It's a good thing that the pro's leave 15 min. before the age groupers, because if not I'd be coming out of the water with
Yvonne van Vlerken, and I KNOW I would be tempted to try and keep up on the bike. THAT would be a mistake!) And when I hammer, I have learned, I REALLY fuck my chances for a good run. I want to have a good run. Which reminds me, I have no idea about how to run either...
My REAL Worry

Yeah, you
think I know how to run, but know what? I have no idea. I've run what? like 9 races of marathon distance or longer, and it's taken me
5 years to figure out that I have
no effing clue what I'm doing. I learned this when someone else took over my running and I inexplicably dropped 1 min/mile off my average pace for no reason whatsoever (certainly not training, anyway). That was when I surrendered my running completely to someone else, but the problem is that I'm STILL running faster than the paces that he sets for me,
unintentionally. And here's the terrifying part: I haven't run longer than 15 miles in this whole Ironman build-up. So not only is my sense of pacing completely baffling me, I also have no clue how my body responds to fatigue these days. How am I supposed to know how to pace a marathon???
Think about it: When you start a marathon, based on your training runs you know more or less the rate of perceived exertion or pace that you can hold for the better part of 26.2 miles. This is based on two things: your knowledge of your body's preferred "steady" pace, and the knowledge of how your body has responded to fatigue on long runs. Pick a "steady" pace that's too fast on your long runs and you crash at the end. Lesson learned, don't do that in a race. But I have no idea what my "steady" pace should be (I've dropped about 5 s/mile off my average pace on each my 90+ minute runs for the past several weeks), nor do I know how my body will respond to anything above 15 miles.
Add that to the fatigue of an Ironman and well... you get the picture. Last year I was so underfed and hot that I could barely move after the bike. After my 110-mile training rides this year, my legs have still picked out a low-8-minute pace for me. I could NOT keep that up for a marathon.
Plus, even though I
ride better in the heat, I
run like shit when it's hot. Put those two together and you get a bike that's too hard and wrecked running legs that couldn't even run if they were fresh. Also, have I mentioned that it's been in the 40's and 50's every day here. It's going to be in the 80's in Cozumel. Which means that anything I thought I knew about pace, heartrate, etc can be thrown out the window.
A question:So I have a question for those of you who are successful runners (I'm especially interested in those of you who can keep your pace for the final 10K of the marathon within 10s of your pace for the first 10K). How do you pick your perceived effort for the first 10 miles of a marathon??? How do you know???